A friend leans across the table and says, “I got a new job. Guess what I do!” Then she adds, “I touch face cream all day.”
You have no idea. Your mind is empty, and “I don’t know” feels like a very small answer for such a good question. Or you say “Maybe… cream?” and the moment is gone.
English has a small set of phrases made for exactly this moment. They are not difficult, but they do different work. Some sound careful, some sound playful, and one sounds almost certain. Choose the wrong one and you can sound too sure about something you only imagine. Choose the right one and a guess becomes the best part of a conversation.
In a long podcast conversation, Paul and Emily play a guessing game with strange jobs. Paul compares guessing to a dart: “Guessing is like throwing a dart in a dark room. You can’t see the board. You just throw and listen.” This page uses their game, line by line, to show how the three main phrases work. Editorial note (not from the podcast): the opening scene, the example sentences in the tables and the exercises are written for this page. The lines in the quote boxes come from the episode.
Three guesses, three levels of sure
Before the game, Paul asks the question that every learner has: “My guess is, I bet, it must be. Are they all the same?” Emily answers with a small picture, a ladder. The phrases go from less sure to more sure.
| Phrase | How sure? | What it sounds like | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| My guess is… | Not very sure | Neutral, polite, works anywhere | My guess is that it’s a joke. |
| I bet… | Fairly sure | Friendly and casual | I bet they test food. |
| It must be… | Almost sure, because of a clue | A little like a detective | It must be for medicine. |
Emily describes them like this: “My guess is, is the most neutral one.” “I bet sounds more sure, and a little more casual.” And “It must be means you’re almost certain, because of some clue.”
The most important word in that last sentence is clue. My guess is needs no clue; you can say it with your eyes closed. It must be does not work without one. If you say “It must be rain tomorrow” when you have not looked at the sky, a native speaker will wonder what you know that they do not.
A guessing game, from the first clue to the last
Here is the first round of the game as Emily and Paul play it. She gives the name of a job, and he guesses from the name alone. The job is called a snake milker.
Paul: My guess is that it’s a joke. Snakes don’t make milk.
Emily: No, they don’t. You’re right about that.
Paul: Okay, good. So the milk is not real milk. I bet they take something else from the snake.
Emily: Ooh, you’re on the right track.
Watch what Paul does. He starts with the careful phrase, my guess is, because he has no real information yet. Then he finds one piece of firm ground: snakes do not make milk. That one fact lets him climb the ladder and say I bet. Emily’s reaction, “you’re on the right track,” tells him he is going in the right direction. It is a very useful answer to someone else’s guess: it says yes, keep going, without giving the whole answer away.
A few lines later he gets there by himself. He says it softly, with maybe: “Maybe it’s the venom, the poison in their bite.” Emily says, “Yes! That’s it. The venom.”
Now watch the next step. Paul wants to know why anyone needs snake venom, and Emily tells him to guess first. He says:
Paul: Okay. It must be for medicine. That’s the only thing that makes sense.
Emily: Good use of it must be. And you’re right again.
This time he has a clue, and he says it out loud: the only thing that makes sense. That is the shape of a good must be guess. The clue comes with it.
Using a clue: look inside the word
The second job in the game has a stranger name: sensory scientist. This round is the best example of guessing with a clue, because Paul looks inside the word itself.
Paul: Let me find the clue. Sensory. That’s about the senses.
Paul: Sight, hearing, smell, taste, and touch.
Paul: So it must be something about testing the senses.
Three short sentences, and each one has a job. First he says what he is doing (let me find the clue). Then he shows the clue (sensory means the senses). Then he makes the guess, and he chooses must be because the clue is strong.
You can copy the pattern with almost any new word or situation:
- Say what you see or know. “It has the word sensory in it.” “She is wearing a uniform.” “There is a long line outside.”
- Say what that tells you. “That’s about the senses.” “That suggests a hospital.” “That means the food is popular.”
- Make the guess. “So it must be about testing.” “So I bet she’s a nurse.” “So my guess is the restaurant is new.”
Notice that the guess does not have to be right. Paul’s next try is wrong: “My guess is, they test people’s eyes or ears.” Emily says, “Close, but not quite. You’re testing something different.” The guess was still a good one, because it came from a clue. And it led to a better try: “Okay. I bet they test food. They probably taste chips all day.” Emily: “Some of them do test food, actually.”
A wrong guess with a clue is a good guess. A silent pause is the only real mistake.
Answering someone else’s guess
The game has two players, and half of the language belongs to the person who knows the answer. Emily uses four short answers during the game. You can use them in any guessing situation, from a friend’s new job to a surprise party:
- “You’re on the right track.” You are going the right way, but you are not there yet.
- “Close, but not quite.” Your idea is near the real answer and still different from it.
- “That’s it!” You are right.
- “You’re not there yet, but you’re close.” The same idea as the first one, a little warmer.
The first, third and fourth come from the game, and the second from the sensory scientist round. Notice that none of them says “wrong.” They keep the other person guessing, and that keeps the conversation going.
When you have no clue at all
Sometimes the honest answer is that you do not know. Emily has a sentence for that moment too. When Paul asks whether he was right that snake milking must be quiet work, she says: “I honestly don’t know. But it sounds right to me.”
Paul repeats it back as a gift: “That’s another nice phrase. I honestly don’t know.” And Emily adds the lesson: “When you don’t know, just say it. No need to invent.”
So the full toolkit has a floor as well as a ladder. The floor is I honestly don’t know, and it is completely fine. It is much better than a confident guess about a fact you could damage, such as a price, a date or a medical detail. Emily does the same thing earlier in the game. She does not give Paul a number for the salary, because she is “not sure it’s correct,” and Paul accepts it: “I’d rather hear no number than an incorrect one.”
Three guesses in a row
Near the end of the sensory scientist round, Paul puts all three levels in a row, and Emily notices:
Paul: My guess is, they work in a clean, quiet lab.
Paul: I bet they wash their hands about a hundred times a day.
Paul: And it must be hard to describe cream when your nose is tired.
Emily: Ooh, that last one is a smart guess. I read that they take breaks so their senses can rest.
Paul: Like a tired nose needs a holiday.
Three guesses, three levels: a careful one, a friendly one and an almost-certain one, in the order of the ladder. This is the easiest way to remember them. You do not need to choose perfectly. Say all three, from careful to confident, when you play this game with a friend.
Where each phrase belongs
The ladder is about how sure you are. This table is about where you are.
| Situation | A good choice | Why |
|---|---|---|
| A job interview: “What do you think will happen next year?” | My guess is… | It sounds careful and honest. |
| A friend’s surprise: “Where are we going tonight?” | I bet it’s the new Italian place. | Casual and a little playful. |
| You see a full parking lot on a Monday morning | It must be a busy day. | You have a clue, and you say what it tells you. |
| Someone asks about a price you only half remember | I honestly don’t know. | A wrong number could cause a problem. |
| A quiz game with friends | All three, in a row | The game is the point. |
Four mistakes with guessing
1. Missing the verb after my guess is. Learners often say “My guess is it dangerous.” English needs a full sentence after it: “My guess is it’s dangerous.” The little word that is possible and sounds a bit more careful: “My guess is that it’s dangerous.”
2. Two levels at once. “I bet it must be a doctor” mixes two ladder steps. Choose one: “I bet it’s a doctor” or “It must be a doctor.”
3. Must be without a clue. “It must be cold tomorrow” is strange, because nobody can see tomorrow. For the future, use a softer phrase: “It might be cold tomorrow” or “My guess is it’ll be cold.” Save must be for things you can find evidence for right now.
4. A long silence. The best fix is the shortest. When you cannot think of anything, say “Let me find the clue,” and look for one thing you can see or know. Paul does exactly this with the word sensory.
Exercises with answers
Exercise 1: choose the level. Choose My guess is, I bet or It must be.
- Your neighbor’s car is gone, the lights are off, and his mail is on the floor: “He ___ on holiday.”
- A friend asks how old the building is, and you have no information: ”___ about a hundred years.”
- You think the new cafe on your street will be crowded tonight, but you have no proof: ”___ it’ll be full.”
Answers: 1. must be (the car, the lights and the mail are all clues: “He must be on holiday.”). 2. My guess is (“My guess is about a hundred years.”). 3. I bet (“I bet it’ll be full.”).
Exercise 2: make the guess from the clue. Finish each guess with a clue and a phrase.
- Clue: She carries a tube and a map, and she is looking up at the buildings. ___
- Clue: The man at the next table is smiling at his phone and typing quickly. ___
Possible answers: 1. She’s wearing a backpack and looking at a map, so I bet she’s a tourist. 2. He keeps smiling and typing, so my guess is he’s texting a friend. Your answers can be different. Check three things: there is a clue, the phrase fits how sure you are, and there is a full sentence after it.
Exercise 3: answer the guess. A friend says, “I bet your new job is in a hospital.” Your job is actually in a laboratory. Which answer is best?
a) “No, you’re wrong.”
b) “Close, but not quite. It’s in a laboratory.”
c) “Hmm.”
Answer: b. It is honest, it keeps the game friendly, and it gives one small piece of information.
Exercise 4: your turn. Think of a job you know a little about, or one from this page. Write three guesses about what a person in that job does in a normal day: one with my guess is, one with I bet and one with it must be (with a clue).
The guessing phrases in one list
- My guess is… careful, polite, no clue needed.
- I bet… friendly, fairly sure.
- It must be… almost sure; say the clue.
- You’re on the right track. / Close, but not quite. / That’s it! answers to someone else’s guess.
- I honestly don’t know. a good answer when you really do not know.
- After my guess is, say a full sentence. Never mix two levels in one.
Hear it in a real conversation
The guessing game with the snake milker and the sensory scientist is one round of a longer conversation, together with opinions about coffee, concerts and pineapple on pizza, a would-you-rather game and childhood beliefs. If you want to hear the phrases in a natural, relaxed hour, read the Show Note and listen to the episode: 1 Hour of Real English Conversation Practice: Opinions, Would You Rather, Strange Jobs and Old Beliefs.